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 This Week’s Commentary (January 2^nd, 2009): Happy New Year!!  Great to have 2008 behind us now and moving on to a hopefully more prosperous 2009.  Markets again remained relatively calm during the second week of this holiday stretch, and finished very much on a high note for the first day of the New Year.  For the week the S&P 500 gained 6.8%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 6.7%, and the small cap Russell 2000 rose 6.1%.  The international markets fared similarly with the MCSI developed country fund (EAFE) gaining 4.5%, the emerging country fund (EEM) rising 5.3%, and the Latin American fund (ILF) running up 8.8% for the week. 

For the Accumulation/Distribution results, notable Timing Model items are that most major index funds remain at sells this week including the Dow-Jones Industrials (^DJI), the S&P 500 (^SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), as well as the emerging international market ETF (EEM).  A couple of indexes remain at buys, including the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the developed country international market ETF (EFA). 

For the Price-Trending results Timing Model for the Profunds® bear funds we track all are now at sells this week (BRPIX, SHPIX, URPIX, USPIX).  For the TSP funds, the C and S funds both triggered to buys this week, joining the I and the F-funds. 

For this week the Domestic Market Monte Carlo Trade Flag (M²CTF) and the International M²CTF both remain at values of 0.33.  At these values the Domestic M²CTF and the International M²CTF remain below their pivot point values.  Accordingly our current Accumulation/Distribution trade-call remians a sell for the domestic markets, and a sell for the international markets.  .

Check out the Portfolio page for the latest TS-portfolios.  

2008 Year-End Commentary: What a year it was!!  One the of the most difficult in memory.  For the Thrift-Savings-Plan funds the F-fund easily took the cake for performance this year, at 5.5% up for the year, followed by the G-fund, which made 3.8%.  The three equity funds, the C, S and I-funds, were all deep in the red with losses of -37.0%, -38.3%, and -42.4% respectively.  This compares with the S&P 500 which lost -38.5% for the year -- quite a tough year!

For the timed portfolios, even though most finished in the red, the losses where well contained compared to the buy & hold portfolios with losses of -7.7% or less.  Two of the portfolios even managed small gains. 

We've made some additional improvements to the Timing-Science 2.0 models for the new year, to reduce the number of trades while maintaining good returns.  With the market clearly having plenty of upside potential, we're hoping to see 2009 provide a year for much better returns, with fewer trades and lower anxiety.